Nifty Future Analysis

Good Morning and Wish You a Happy Trading Session ….

Yesterday at morning update, written about the resistance 10317, although Nifty Future made high 10315 and start to melt down. Through the session an intraday correction mood was continued.

After a deep correction from 11793 to 10030 yesterday’s high was the first top, which can be called starting of a bounce back. Analysis of Nifty Future, suggest that today’s low is very vital.

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI

Foreign Institutional Investors have bought at 3974081 Cr and sold 5566.83 Cr. yesterday.

 Domestic Institutional Investors have sold 2431.19 Cr. Against buy of 3794.23 Cr.

India VIX Snapshot

India VIX made high 20.7725 and low 19.5500 yesterday. Decreasing of high and low of this Index is good for bulls.

Close below 17.2656 will confirm the rally. Yesterday advance-decline ratio was 21:29

OI at Option Trading

Strike price of most active Nifty CALL was 10500, and turnover was 9, 07, 909 .21 laces.

But most active PUT was 10000, and turnover was 6, 31,082.49.lacs. From last few sessions most active put option is 10,000.

Key Support-Resistance level of Nifty Future

Yesterday written about the first resistance 10317.95, Nifty Future made high 10315 and started to melt down.

Today above 10282 Nifty Future will try to cross 10317, once it able to do then straight resistance zone will be 10480.50----10490.55.

Vital support of the day is 10163.82. Crucial support of the day is 10121.75. Once Nifty Future starts to bounce back then don’t hold any short positions.

Today’s Overview:

From days low a sharp bounce back is quite possible, if cross yesterday’s high 10315 then rally will be continue.

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Nifty Future Rally

Good Morning and Wish You a Happy Trading Session ….

Yesterday after a positive opening, Nifty Future holds the acceleration of up move. From last few days writing about the rally. Yesterday’s move indicated the rally has begins. It will be clear today.

Although the wave pattern (till now) suggesting the up move. If today Nifty Future able to cross 6.75% from the low, than it will be a good indication of the rally.

After opening at 10089 Nifty Future run straight towards up, an intraday rally pulled Nifty Future to 10306.

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI

Yesterday Foreign Institutional Investors have bought at 4411.77 Cr and sold 6642.56 Cr. despite of up-move of 2.75% from low 10030 within two trading session, this kind of selling is confusing.

 Domestic Institutional Investors have sold 2925.24 Cr. Against buy of 5452.14 Cr.

India VIX Snapshot

India VIX made high 20.8125 and low 19.2325 yesterday. Decreasing of high and low of this Index is good for bulls.

Close below 17.2656 will confirm the rally. Yesterday advance-decline ratio was 42:8.

OI at Option Trading

Strike price of most active Nifty CALL was 10500, and turnover was 9, 64, 294 .83 laces.

But most active PUT was 10000, and turnover was 7, 32,169.lacs. From last few sessions most active put option is 10,000. And Nifty Future yesterday takes a bounce back.

Key Support-Resistance level of Nifty Future

Above 10317.95 Nifty Future may face next resistance t 10488. Single closing above 10488 Nifty Future may run to 10714.85

Today’s Overview:

After making low at 10030 on Friday Nifty Future reverse 276 points yesterday. Now looking towards 10715, this will confirm the rally.

Work analysis:

Friday our Clients have bought 10650 CE @34 today the instrument made high 70.

Nifty Future Behavior

                             

             

Good Morning and Wish You a Happy Trading Session ….

On Friday Nifty Future opened flat with negative mood. After making day’s low at 10030 with sharp move, the Index tried to take a bounce back. And make day’s high at 10177.

But Nifty Future filed to sustain at high and meltdown again near day’s low.

From 11793 (life time high, made on 31 August’18) Nifty Future already corrected 14.95% (1763 points).

Today’s first half’s Nifty Future behavior will show the direction of next move.

Now question arise, is Nifty Future going to break 10000 today? what will be the reversal point of Nifty Future. From which support level it may take reverse.

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI

Foreign Institutional Investors have bought at 4230.17 Cr and sold 5587.37 Cr. on Friday.

 Domestic Institutional Investors have sold 2344.76 Cr. Against buy of 4220.65 Cr.

India VIX Snapshot

On Friday high of the Index was 21.04000 and low was 18.6600 (lower than previous close 18.9625).

If today the Index break 17.4990, then will confirmed the rally.

OI at Option Trading

Strike price of most active Nifty CALL was 10500, OI was 320, 18,175.

But most active PUT was 10000, and open interest was 34, 03,875. From last few sessions most active put option is 10,000. And Nifty Future yesterday made low 10073.

Key Support-Resistance level of Nifty Future

Above 10077.65 Nifty Future may face next resistance t 10101. Vital resistance of the day is 10142/10147.

Vital support of the day is 9885. Crucial support of the week is 9827.

Today’s Overview:

If volume support then Nifty Future may form bottom today (for the time being). A reverse rally is on card.

And today Nifty Future may break 10000 and bottom may be below 9900.

Nifty Reversal Point

Market-Fall-and-Reverse

Good Morning and Wish You a Happy Trading Session ….

After negative opening Nifty Future continue down flow till mid session. Forming day’s low at 10073 the index reverse to 10175 (day’s high).

From 11793 (life time high, made on 31 August’18) Nifty Future already corrected 14.58% (1720 points).

Now question arise, what will be the reversal point of Nifty Future. From which support level it may take reverse.

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI

Although yesterday’s net trade value (sell) was lower than previous day, but as usual Foreign Institutional Investors net sold -1495.71 Cr

 Domestic Institutional Investors have sold 7471.05 Cr. Against buy of 7810.65 Cr.

Last-Two-Day-Performance

India VIX Snapshot

At last session of October expiry India VIX made high 20.3300, and low was 18.8800, the index increased by 2.27% than previous session.

Today if fail to cross yesterday’s high then it will be the provider of strength to start a relief rally.

OI at Option Trading

Strike price of most active Nifty CALL was 10300, OI was 33, 19,275.

But most active PUT was 10000, and open interest was 45, 00,000. From last few sessions most active put option is 10,000. And Nifty Future yesterday made low 10073.

From 10200 to 10300 strikes (any resistance level, I have mentioned) Nifty Future may start melting. But 10000 level is acting as good support.

Key Support-Resistance level of Nifty Future

Above yesterday’s high (10175) next resistance is 10197. Vital resistance of the day is 10248. If Nifty Future crosses 10284 with volume, then it may touch 10319.90.

Vital support of the day is 10023.

If Nifty Future break 9958.75, then it may take vital support at 9848--9845.95--9843.

Today’s Overview:

If volume support then Nifty Future may form bottom today (for the time being). A reverse rally is on card.

From any resistance a small intraday correction is possible. From support level a relief rally may start.

Nifty Future Bottom

Good Morning and Wish You a Happy Trading Session ….

After making intraday high at 10277.95(my prediction was 10284) Nifty Future start to fall as expectation. From intraday low 10155 Nifty Future reverse to 10246.

From 11793 (life time high, made on 31 August’18) Nifty Future already corrected 14.43% (1701 points).

This type of correction and pattern indicating that fall will be continue (but as part of any move a bounce back rally is natural)

Today is derivative expiry; this event may be the provider of strength of a pullback rally.

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI

After two days from three digit net trade to four digit trade was again performed by Foreign Institutional Investors. Yesterday they have net sold -2046.54 Cr

 Domestic Institutional Investors have sold 3456.81 Cr. Against buy of 5330.32 Cr.

India VIX Snapshot

At yesterday’s session volatility decreased gradually. Yesterday from 22.3475 the index was down by 11.35%.

Today volatility may increase, cause of Derivative Expiry. If India VIX able to cross 20.3520 then volatility may increase again.

OI at Option Trading

Strike price of most active Nifty CALL was 10400, OI was 30, 39,900.

But most active PUT was 10000, and open interest was 42, 65,250. From last few sessions most active put option is 10,000. And Nifty Future yesterday made low 10092.

 If Nifty Future breaks the level then Panic selling will be stronger for sudden hours, a bounce back rally is on card.

Key Support-Resistance level of Nifty Future

Vital resistance of the day is 10282.5/10284. If Nifty Future crosses 10284 with volume, then it may touch 10319.90(!). But chance is very remote.

This is not a bull phase, from any resistance Nifty Future melt down sharply.

Below 10066 next supports are 9958.75. If Nifty Future break the level, then may take vital support at 9848--9845.95--9843.

Closing below the last mentioned support Nifty Future may take support at 9580. (Not today).

Today’s Overview:

If volume support then Nifty Future may form bottom today (for the time being). A reverse rally is on card.

Therefore your Nifty trading strategy should be short on intraday basis, and long for positional trade.

Today is derivative expiry; it may be the turning time.

Nifty trading strategy

Nifty Future Move

                                                         

Good Morning and Wish You a Happy Trading Session ….

After flat opening Nifty Future made high at 10216 and continued the correction mode throughout the session. From day’s low 10092 Nifty Future has take an intraday bounce back. And end at 10182.

Strategy

From 11793 (life time high, made on 31 August’18) Nifty Future already corrected 14.43% (1701 points).

This type of correction and pattern indicating that fall will be continue (but as part of any move a bounce back rally is natural)

Tomorrow is derivative expiry; this event may be the provider of strength of a pull back rally.

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI

As usual Foreign Institutional Investors were on sell side yesterday. They have bought 4996.8 Cr. and sold 5337.15 Cr. the net trade value was -340.35 Cr.

 

Investments

 Domestic Institutional Investors have sold 4791.07 Cr. Against buy of 4907.48 Cr.

Type of trade was as regular, FIIs were at sell side and at opposite DIIs.

India VIX Snapshot

From last two days writing about the resistance 22.0300 as the resistance of India VIX, yesterday it made high of 22.3475.

Today and tomorrow volatility may increase, cause of Derivative Expiry.

 

Common question 

OI at Option Trading

Strike price of most active Nifty CALL was 10500, OI was 37, 04,975.

But most active PUT was 10000, and open interest was 36, 66,075. From last few sessions most active put option is 10,000. And Nifty Future yesterday made low 10092.

 If Nifty Future breaks the level then Panic selling will be stronger for sudden hours, a bounce back rally is on card.

Key Support-Resistance level of Nifty Future

Vital resistance of the day is 10227. If Nifty Future crosses 10284 with volume, then it may touch 10318(!). But chance is very remote.

This is not a bull phase, from any resistance Nifty Future melt down sharply.

 

Support

Below 9958.75 Nifty Future may take vital support at 9848/9845.95. Closing below the last mentioned support Nifty Future may take support at 9580. (Not today).

Today’s Overview:

If volume support then Nifty Future may form bottom today (for the time being). A reverse rally is on card.

 

Overview

Therefore your Nifty trading strategy should be short on intraday basis, and long for positional trade.

Except this tomorrow is derivative expiry, it may be the turning time.

Work sheet of 23 October:

Yesterday there were two calls. 1^st was sell Nifty Future at 10218, after 56 minutes of call delivered, Nifty Future made high 10216 and start to melt down.

 

Work-sheet

Second call was to sell Nifty Future at 10182, target was 10108, target achieved smoothly.

Nifty Trade Tips

Nifty Future Fall

                                                         

Good Morning and Wish You a Happy Trading Session ….

After a gap-up opening Nifty Future has continued the correction mode throughout the session. From first support of 10277 an intraday bounce back pull Nifty Future to 10364, but fail to sustain and start to melt. Finally the index made low at 10206.

Scope of Short

From 11793 (life time high) Nifty Future already corrected 13.46% (1587 points) from 31 August’18 to 22 October’18. This type of correction and pattern indicating that fall will be continue.

Now the question arises what should the retail investors do. Withdraw their capital or wait for the bottom. But we are already late. This thought was appropriate at the first week of September.

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI

Yesterday Foreign Institutional Investors have bought 4827.11 Cr. and sold 5339.02 Cr. the net trade value was -511.91 Cr.

 Domestic Institutional Investors have sold 3472.54 Cr. Against buy of 3775.75 Cr.

Type of trade was as regular, FIIs were at sell side and at opposite DIIs.

 

Links

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India VIX Snapshot

Yesterday high of India VIX was 21.6725 and low was 17.0800;

Above 22.0300 be cautious, next round of correction may take place.

OI at Option Trading

Strike price of most active Nifty CALL was 10500, OI was 41, 80,500.

But most active PUT was 10000, and open interest was 36, 80,625. From last few sessions most active put option is 10,000. And Nifty Future recent low is 10155,

 If Nifty Future breaks the level then Panic selling will be stronger.

Key Support-Resistance level of Nifty Future

 

Resistance

Vital resistance of the day is 10282.70/10283. Above the level tough hurdle to cross is 10292. This is not a bull phase, from any resistance Nifty Future melt down sharply.

 

Support

Below 10133 Nifty Future may take next support at 10077. After breaking 10077 Panic selling will pull down the Index around 9960----9629.

Today’s Overview:

From any resistance levels a sharp correction may took place; at long positions maintain strict stop losses. Below 10206 just see Panic selling in the market.